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[摘要]：This paper describes a study that combined traditional Factor Decomposition method and System Dynamics (SD) modeling in the quest to predict the pattern of future oil consumption per capita (OCPC). Three factors were used for decomposition, i.e. economic activity, technological progress, and structure of energy consumption. The study comprises three major sections: (1) IPAT Identity and its variants as Factor Decomposition method for OCPC: (2) the hybrid methodology of Factor Decomposition method modified by SD: and (3) scenarios for Chinese OCPC. Three scenarios were contemplated, showing respectively Exponential Growth, S Growth and Smart Exponential Growth (SEG), the latter most likely closest to the future trajectory. Testing the SEG scenario on historical data of China provided significant confidence in the hybrid model structure. According to the SEG scenario, China's OCPC would increase at 4.6% per year during 2005-2010 and 3.0% during 2010-2025. Values of OCPC are estimated to be 453 kgce (kg of standard coal equivalent) in 2010, 585 kgce in 2020, and 626 kgce in 2025. Not before 2094 would the OCPC of China reach America's level of 2006. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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