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[摘要]：The present study proposes the utilization of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as an alternative for generating synthetic series of daily solar irradiation. The sequences were generated from the use of daily temporal series of a group of meteorological variables that were measured simultaneously. The data used were measured between the years of 1998 and 2006 in two temperate climate localities of Brazil, Ilha Solteira (Sao Paulo) and Pelotas (Rio Grande do Sul). The estimates were taken for the months of January, April, July and October, through two models which are distinguished regarding the use or nonuse of measured bright sunshine hours as an input variable. An evaluation of the performance of the 56 months of solar irradiation generated by way of ANN showed that by using the measured bright sunshine hours as an input variable (model 1), the RMSE obtained were less or equal to 23.2% being that of those, although 43 of those months presented RMSE less or equal to 12.3%. In the case of the model that did not use the measured bright sunshine hours but used a daylight length (model 2), RMSE were obtained that varied from 8.5% to 37.5%, although 38 of those months presented RMSE less or equal to 20.0%. A comparison of the monthly series for all of the years, achieved by means of the Kolmogorov Smirnov test (to a confidence level of 99%), demonstrated that of the 16 series generated by ANN model only two, obtained by model 2 for the months of April and July in Pelotas, presented significant difference in relation to the distributions of the measured series and that all mean deviations obtained were inferior to 0.39 MJ/m(2). It was also verified that the two ANN models were able to reproduce the principal statistical characteristics of the frequency distributions of the measured series such as: mean, mode, asymmetry and Kurtosis. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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