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[摘要]：Energy procurement is a necessity which needs a deep study of both the demand and the generation sources, referred to consumers territorial localization. The study presented in this paper extends and consolidate the Shimon Awerbuch's study on portfolio theory applied to the energy planning, in order to define a broad generating mix which optimizes one or more objective functions defined for a determined contest. For this purpose the computation model was specialized in energy generation problem and extended with the addition of new cost-risk settings, like renewable energy availability, and Black-Litterman model, which extends Markowitz theory. Energy planning was then contextualized to the territory: the introduction of geographic and climatic features allows to plan energy infrastructures on both global and local (regional, provincial, municipal) scale. The result is an efficient decision making tool to drive the investment on typical energy policy assets. In general the tool allows to analyze several scenarios in support of renewable energy sources, environmental sustainability, costs and risks reduction. In this paper the model was applied to the energy generation in Italy, and the analysis was done: on the actual energy mix; assuming the use of nuclear technology; assuming the verisimilar improvement of several technologies in the future. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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