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[摘要]：Photovoltaics cost has been declining following a 70% learning curve. Now the challenge is to bring down the cost of solar electricity to make it competitive with conventional sources within the next decade. In the long run, the module efficiencies tend to reach 80% of the champion cell efficiencies. Using a semiempirical methodology, it has been shown earlier that while the triple junction a-Si:H thin film technology is competitive, CIGS and CdTe thin film module technologies are highly competitive and presently offer the best approach for significantly exceeding the cost/performance levels of standard and non-standard crystalline Si PV technologies. Since 2006, the production of thin film solar cell in the U.S. has surpassed that of c-Si. At present, the production of CIGS PV modules lags considerably behind that of CdTe PV modules. This is mainly because of its complexity. Scale-up issues related to various CIGS preparation technologies such as co-evaporation, metallic precursor deposition by magnetron sputtering and non-vacuum techniques such as ink-jet printing, electroplating or doctor-blade technology followed by their selenization/sulfurization are discussed so as to assist the CIGS technology to attain its full potential. Besides the welcome announcements of large volume production, it is essential to achieve the production cost below $1/Wp in the near term and attain production speeds comparable to CdTe production speeds. Comparable production speeds are expected to be achieved within the next decade. This will enable reduction of CIGS module production costs to similar to 650(sic)/Wp that would be comparable to the CdTe module projected production cost. Additionally CIGS will have a higher efficiency premium. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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