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Toward the Establishment of a Prediction System for the Personalized Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C

  作者 Ochi, H; Hayes, CN; Abe, H; Hayashida, Y; Uchiyama, T; Kamatani, N; Nakamura, Y; Chayama, K  
  选自 期刊  Journal of Infectious Diseases;  卷期  2012年205-2;  页码  204-210  
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[摘要]Methods. In this retrospective study, data from 640 Japanese patients who were treated for chronic hepatitis C genotype 1, 2, or 3 with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin combination therapy was compiled to identify robust pretreatment predictive factors for SVR. Results. A logistic regression model for personalized therapy was developed based on age, viral genotype, initial viral load, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, alpha-fetoprotein levels, and IL28B single-nucleotide polymorphism genotype. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.85. The mean AUC following 10 rounds of 10-fold cross validation was 0.82, with a true positive rate of 78.2%. Conclusions. A personalized approach to therapy may better inform treatment decisions and reduce incidence of side effects and antiviral resistance.

 
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